It’s illegal to bet on US presidential elections, but sportsbooks outside of the US give Harris the best odds of winning the presidency. So, forget the polls and follow the money.
Based on the presidential election odds offered by overseas odds-makers, the most likely presidential election prediction is for Harris to defeat Trump by winning between 270 and 299 electoral votes.[1]
But a Harris victory is far from assured with Pennsylvania being the key to an electoral college victory.
Sportsbook Review shows an implied probability of a Harris Win at 54.55% with Trump at even money (50%).[2] Electoral college odds show a slight lead for Harris with Pennsylvania likely determine the who is the next president.[3]
Nate Silver give 3:1 odd of Harris winning the popular vote.[4] But says that the electoral college map favors Trump but is still essentially a tossup. Pennsylvania is the “tipping point state” with its 19 electoral college votes.
Smarkets shows Harris as the odds-on favorite with a 6-point edge over Trump. The Smarkets odds-makers favor Democrats retaking the House but losing the Senate.[5],[6]
Polymarkets gives Harris a 2-point edge over Trump and likewise forecasts Democrats retaking the House and losing the Senate.[7]
Overall, odds-makers give Harris an overwhelming victory on the popular vote but only a slight electoral college edge. Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are viewed as the true swing states – with the odds favoring Harris.[8]
The odds-makers suggest a strong showing for Harris in the popular vote. Pennsylvania will decide who will be the next president. We need to deliver Pennsylvania to get Harris over the electoral college 270 vote threshold.
The future of our democracy is truly in our hands. Every door knocked, every post card, every phone call and text put us that much closer to victory in Pennsylvania and the presidency.
We won’t go back!
[1] https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/2024-united-states-presidential-election-odds-predictions-kamala-harris-donald-trump-weeks-days-until-election-day (24 September 2024)
[2] Presidential Election Betting Odds 2024: Harris Still Sits on Top as Favorite Over Trump
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/us-presidential-election-odds-politics/ (25 September 2024)
[3] Donald Trump 2024 Odds to Win Next U.S. Presidential Election: Trump Still Trailing Harris
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/us-state-presidential-odds-politics/ (26 September 2024)
[4] Pigs fly. Hell freezes over. The Electoral College favors ... Democrats?
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model (26 September 2024)
[5] https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/us/2024-presidential-election (27 September 2024)
[6] https://smarkets.com/listing/politics/us/2024/11/05/00-00/congress (27 September 2024)
[8] Harris Holds Lead Over Trump In Election Betting Markets As Polls Show Tight Race In Swing States
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